New York: With the College Football Playoff matchup between Oklahoma and Alabama set for Friday night, most predictions have leaned toward the Crimson Tide pulling off a road win. However, college football analyst Josh Pate is going against the trend, saying he trusts Oklahoma more due to fewer unanswered questions.
Appearing on ESPN’s “Get Up”, Pate explained that while Alabama certainly has a path to victory, too many variables surround the Tide heading into the game. Those uncertainties, he believes, give the Sooners the edge in a high-stakes playoff environment.
Too Many ‘Ifs’ for Alabama, Says Pate
Pate acknowledged Alabama’s upside, noting that if several factors fall into place, the Crimson Tide could win comfortably. But he stressed that those outcomes remain hypothetical.
“I have too many ifs with Alabama,” Pate said. “If those are answered positively, they could win by double digits. But the problem is they’re still ifs.”
Pate pointed to Alabama’s previous loss to Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa on November 15, where turnovers and poor field position played a decisive role. While Alabama struggled offensively, Pate emphasized that Oklahoma deserves credit for forcing mistakes and controlling the flow of the game.
Offensive Concerns Loom for the Crimson Tide
One of the biggest question marks is Alabama’s offense, which has been inconsistent down the stretch. Since the start of November, the Tide have averaged just 18.8 points and 309.8 total yards per game in four games against Power Five opponents, along with 1.3 turnovers per contest.
That stretch includes the loss to Oklahoma, where Alabama scored 21 points but committed three turnovers. Pate noted that if the offense can’t sustain drives, pressure will fall heavily on the defense to keep the game within reach.
Defense Strong, But Is It Enough?
Alabama’s defense has been among the nation’s elite, allowing only 17.4 points and 283.3 yards per game this season. That strength could keep the Tide competitive in what many expect to be a low-scoring matchup.
However, Pate suggested that if Oklahoma plays with a lead, Alabama could find itself in the same uncomfortable position it faced in their earlier meeting—forced to press offensively against a prepared defense.
Injury Updates Add to Uncertainty
Health is another concern for Alabama. While leading rusher Jam Miller and key tight end Josh Cuevas are expected to be available, the Tide will be without LT Overton, their second-leading sack producer, and reserve running back Kevin Riley, according to the latest injury report.
Why Pate Sticks With Oklahoma
With kickoff approaching in Norman, Pate views the game as close but believes Oklahoma’s stability ultimately makes the difference.
“There are a lot of cases you could make for Alabama,” Pate said. “I just have a little more certainty with Oklahoma.”
Based on that confidence, Pate is sticking with his prediction of an Oklahoma win, sending the Sooners on to the Rose Bowl in the College Football Playoff.
