The first leg of league games in the T20 World Cup 2024 has seen several upsets and rain-affected matches, leaving some tournament favorites scrambling to qualify for the Super Eights. Here’s an analysis of the qualification possibilities for Pakistan, England, Sri Lanka, and New Zealand.
Can Pakistan Still Qualify?
Current Situation:
- Pakistan needs to win their remaining matches against Canada and Ireland.
- They also need the USA to lose their matches against India and Ireland.
Qualification Scenario: If Pakistan wins both remaining games and the USA loses both of theirs, Pakistan’s superior net run rate (NRR) could see them through. Pakistan’s close losses mean their NRR is competitive. For instance, if the USA loses their two matches by a combined total of 18 runs, Pakistan will need to win their games by a combined total of just 10 runs, assuming typical first-innings scores of 140.
Key Matches:
- Pakistan vs. Canada
- USA vs. India
- Ireland vs. USA
- Pakistan vs. Ireland
Ireland could also play a decisive role if they manage significant wins against the USA and Pakistan.
What Do England Need to Do to Qualify?
Current Situation:
- England must win their last two matches against Oman and Namibia.
- They need Scotland to lose their game against Australia on June 15.
Qualification Scenario: England’s task is tougher due to their lower NRR. If Scotland loses to Australia by a small margin, England will need substantial wins in their last two games to surpass Scotland’s NRR. Specifically, if Scotland loses by 20 runs, England must win by a combined margin of at least 94 runs.
Key Matches:
- England vs. Oman
- England vs. Namibia
- Scotland vs. Australia
Clear weather is crucial for England to avoid any washouts, which would hinder their qualification chances.
Do Sri Lanka Still Have a Realistic Chance?
Current Situation:
- Sri Lanka must win their remaining matches against Nepal and the Netherlands.
- They need Bangladesh to lose at least one of their remaining matches against the same opponents.
Qualification Scenario: Sri Lanka’s NRR could improve sufficiently with two wins by 20 runs each, potentially overtaking Bangladesh’s NRR if Bangladesh splits their games. The Netherlands also remains a wildcard with a chance to upset the group standings.
Key Matches:
- Sri Lanka vs. Nepal
- Sri Lanka vs. Netherlands
- Bangladesh vs. Nepal
- Bangladesh vs. Netherlands
How Badly Have New Zealand’s Chances Been Dented?
Current Situation:
- New Zealand must win against the West Indies to stay in contention.
- They also need to achieve a significant margin of victory to boost their NRR, currently at -4.2.
Qualification Scenario: New Zealand faces a virtual knockout game against the West Indies. A loss would see the West Indies qualify alongside Afghanistan if Afghanistan beats PNG. Thus, New Zealand’s remaining games against Uganda and PNG would become irrelevant if they lose to the West Indies.
Key Matches:
- New Zealand vs. West Indies
- Afghanistan vs. PNG
- New Zealand vs. Uganda
- New Zealand vs. PNG